Post-election it is time to take a look at the real estate market TODAY and to look ahead for what to expect in the 2025 real estate market for Arizona, the Nation and for YOU! Have a listen to the video or read the blog post below.
Now that we are into December, the election is past and we look forward to 2025 it is a great time to reflect on the possibilities that lie ahead, however it is always tough to know where you are headed if you don't consider where you've been so lets start with the numbers that represent our market today.
This picture looks very similar to the rest of the fall, as we continue with a very similar number of homes for sale (up vs the last 3 years but still well below the prior decade). Pending homes under contract remains steady along with the closings which means we still have a 120 day supply of homes (or and average of 4 months for homes to sell).
Where as in years past this would have meant a very balanced market for buyers and sellers, today it means the buyers have more negotiating power and sellers tend to be a bit more flexible.
So what do we expect in 2025? While no one has a crystal ball there are some things we can glean from history that should give us solid expectation, such as what typically happens after an election... for the last 8 consecutive elections (regardless of party or winner) the number of home sales has increased as you can see below.
Currently we have at least 2 factors that would make this likely. First 2024 transactions were the fewest in a decade (likely people waiting to see about rates/election outcome). And, second, rates have eased and are expected to ease a little more. Recent survey's tell us this is what many are waiting on, as seen in this graphic.
Today most loan products have rates starting in the 6s... So we are close to a tipping point, what do the experts predict for rates in 2025?
As see above the projections range from 5.5% to 6.25%. Thus it will not be a huge swing, however for many a 6.5% rate makes big difference compared to the rates near 8% we saw earlier this year. MOST importantly, this data would indicate that many people will be motivated to make a move as rates ease even just a fraction. PS Anyone waiting on rates to get back in the 2-4% range are likely to be waiting for many years ahead as there are no indicators for such a change.
There is some GREAT news for those who purchased 4-5 years ago or more... you likely have some fantastic equity! This means if you sell to make a move, you will be bringing more cash to the next transaction. This could drastically reduce the impact of rates on your situation. And if you are looking for motivation to explore your options sooner than later the below graphic will be instructive.
Nationally prices are expected to grow by 3.1%, there is no crash in site, which means the sooner you make a move the more likely you save a little money. So how do you make the most of the market in 2025?
The MOST important thing you can do to make the most of 2025 real estate market is to GET THE FACTS that will allow you to decide if your possibilities match your motivation to make a move. At The Drew Team we have served in over 1,000 home purchases/sales, we have resources and partners to get you ALL the information for YOUR specific situation. Let's connect to see what is possible so you have all the options!
Of course, we can't leave our December update properly until we say Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! From Robin & Steven Drew, Robin McAvoy and Tom Walton, may it be a wonderful season for you and your family!
